Last season, Cardiff fans were able to enjoy a rare season where the same manager that started the season, also ended it. I say enjoy, despite the clear progress in terms of the league table, public opinion of Erol Bulut fluctuated on a near weekly basis. The decision to extend his terms was a largely popular decision, but six weeks into the new season, he was gone.
What has followed is two months of drift and what will follow here is assumption, gut instinct and speculation. That is all we have to go on, due to the now standard lack of communication and clarification.
Omer Riza, in the right place at the right time, was doing a sterling job, but now not so much. Whether that is due to his shortcomings as a manager or the inevitability of his temporary fate is hard to ascertain, but the future suddenly seems rather bleak again.
The amount of time it took for the club to strike a deal with Bulut was both alarming and instructive. It appeared that the club were initially unsure, then Bulut in turn needed to think things through. It felt like a marriage of convenience and in retrospect, it should surprise no one that it quickly failed. His new deal felt both grudgingly offered and accepted.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe position then went to Riza by default, after Slaven Bilic seemingly rebuffed Cardiff’s advances. The sweet spot for Riza was after a six-game unbeaten led to a Championship Manager of the Month nomination. Had the club given him a permanent deal at the point, it would have played well with the audience and provided some stable ground.
You could argue that by holding fire, scarred by previous haste with Mick McCarthy perhaps, it has proved that the club made the right call, but indecision should not be dressed up as strategy.
The problem with an interim manager is that the longer they remain in charge, the reality is that they are less likely to get the job. It suggests that you’re not sold on the idea and if they did keep Riza, it would now feel like they were once again doing so grudgingly.
What therefore happens is that over time, Riza’s authority is undermined because everyone accepts that he’s only passing through. The full-blooded performances and glowing endorsements have subsided with every passing week and six unbeaten soon became four without a win. He flew to Malaysia and seemingly returned with no assurances, or none that anyone is prepared to share.
Embed from Getty ImagesOne way of reading the situation, and without clarity, there is always lots of conspiracy theory and guesswork, is that Cardiff have been holding out all this time for Bilic. That Riza’s unexpected success has bought them time, while Bilic milks the remainder of the pay-off from his last post. That may yet prove to be the case, but surely not. Were that true, it would represent a remarkable risk taken by the club.
Bilic is a manager with an impressive track record, but to wait three months for any manager, compromising a league campaign and endangering their Championship status, would be unbelievably reckless. Especially for a manager that rarely stays anywhere for longer than a year. It’s hardly a ringing endorsement for the club either if he’s prepared to wait it out and probably see if any more attractive offers crop up in the interim.
In a fan forum shortly after Bulut’s departure, it was explained that the club would be outsourcing the recruitment process for the next appointment. Why and whether or not that actually happened is unknown. What would the criteria even be anyway? Strong enough to stand up to the owner, but not too strong that they will fall out. Comfortable talking to the media about both the team and the club as a whole because they will be the sole channel of communication. Also, ideally a good football manager.
Baring in mind that Cardiff were rock bottom with zero confidence when Riza took charge, it was a remarkable feat to go on such an impressive run and playing such good football with a clearly liberated group. It’s now gone a bit stale and maybe that would have happened even if he had been given the job permanently, but you do wonder if being a temporary hire has influenced some of his decisions.
Embed from Getty ImagesRiza got massacred for making a defensive switch at Bristol City, but was he doing that to protect the game, his job or both? He has always been one bad game away from being cast aside, but with the security of a long deal, maybe he would have gone for it against Sheffield Wednesday at 1-1, rather than bring on a third centre back and two defensive midfielders. These are the questions that uncertainty raises.
The very nature of supporting a football club is uncertain and that is part of the fun, but you need some certainty. You need a path to follow and a future to look forward to. A constant state of flux is exhausting and off-putting. No one knows what Cardiff will look like next week, let alone next season and beyond. That in turn makes the club very hard to love.
The current state of play is that Cardiff now potentially face seven games between now and the turn of the year, with a fatally compromised manager and no sign of a plan. If the aim is to bring in Bilic, they need to accelerate the process before the job he inherits is a bleak restoration project, or someone else snaps him up. If Bilic is a red herring and Riza’s stock is starting to fall, then I don’t know what the alternative is. Unfortunately, it feels like the club don’t know either.
Given the chance to twist, by keeping Riza or hiring an alternative, the club instead chose to stick and are now left playing with a losing hand.