Cardiff have had a season of progress, but there is still plenty of room for progress

If Cardiff beat Rotherham on Saturday, assuming the game isn’t rained off (never forget!), they will have recorded 20 wins for the season and 21 defeats. That is unprecedented in the Championship, probably because it’s a bit weird. Its rare to be quite so black or white, but Cardiff are always either a bit Jekyll or a bit Hyde.

When they’re good, they look like a team that could go on to potentially challenge for the top six, but when they struggle, you can see all the hallmarks and scars from the last few years of fighting relegation. It’s evidently a flip of the coin if Cardiff win or lose, but when they win, its often a bit of a surprise and when they lose, its often heavily.

Going forward, you expect that their results will start to lean in either direction.

Better players should help turn the narrow defeats into draws and the draws into wins, but its no guarantee and it could swing the other way too. Its never as simple as spending your way up the table. It always helps, but there are so many other factors that need to also improve.

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Cardiff’s goal difference is -14, which is worse than you would expect for a team sat in mid-table. It would usually be be closer to zero, but those big defeats have taken their toll. Plus, Cardiff don’t exactly blow away opponents. Their newly-crowned Player of the Year, Perry Ng, is their joint top scorer with Kahlan Grant on a relatively paltry six.

Their strikers are not cutting it. Kion Etete has plenty of potential, but his momentum always tends to be undermined by a knock. Yakou Meite is not really a striker and Famara Diedhiou will almost certainly return to his parent club Granada. You can’t just go out and buy a 20-goal striker though, not anymore. You can build one over time, but the easier option is to try and create a front three that all record double figures in goals.

Cardiff’s first choice wingers, Grant and Josh Bowler, are both also set to depart, so their whole attack needs a refit. I firmly believe that the one quality that will change Cardiff’s fortunes above all else is pace. That would be my priority, even ahead of a prolific goalscorer because if they were more than pedestrian in their transitions, which they have been for a very long time, goals will inevitably follow.

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Cardiff score very few goals because they create very few chances. They do not have wasteful forwards, they work very hard just to feed off scraps. By the time they get up the pitch, their opponent has already regrouped and are waiting for them. Speed in attack will create more opportunities, which will in turn result in more goals.

Kieffer Moore scored 20 for Cardiff, but he’s a unicorn. He creates chances through sheer force of will and will still provide a proficient focal point for the attack. Ordinarily, it’s a team effort and you have to share the burden of scoring. The fact that Joe Ralls leads in assists tells its own story too. Cardiff are far too reliant on set pieces and need the likes of Rubin Colwill, Callum Robinson and a consistently fit Aaron Ramsey to fashion more chances from open play.

Robinson’s stock may not be as high as it used to be, and his own recent disciplinary issues have not helped, but his absence has been keenly felt because he notches up both goals and assists. One of the few positives from last week’s heavy defeat against Middlesbrough was Robinson’s cameo and smart assist for Bowler. He brings unpredictability to an otherwise rather formulaic attack and his fitness, should he remain at the club, which may not be a guarantee, will again be pivotal.

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With everyone fit, Cardiff have the skeleton of a strong Championship side. Horvath, Ng, who has his admirers, McGuinness, Goutas and Collins are a solid unit. Ralls, Manolis Siopis, Ryan Wintle and David Turnbull provide options in midfield, with Joel Colwill and Eli King coming through. Colwill, Ramsey and Robinson are strong options as a 10. Cian Ashford, Oli Tanner and the returning Isaak Davies offer plenty of attacking promise, with Etete, Meite and Callum O’Dowda hopefully fit and healthy.

If they can supplement what they have with smart loan signings and attacking upgrades, Cardiff can benefit from the stability that will hopefully soon follow from keeping Erol Bulut in charge for another pre-season and improve on the progress made this term.

Should Cardiff beat Rotherham, they have an outside chance of stealing 9^th place from Coventry. That would represent a very strong finish and raise the bar for a realistic, sustained crack at the play-off places next season, in what will likely be a weaker division. An even split of wins and losses is progress, but racking up more wins is the goal and for that, they need greater pace, more cutting edge and a more offensive approach. This season has provided a foundation which they now need to build upon.