There are bad days, then there are losing to Luton, Derby winning and Aaron Ramsey hobbling off days. Cardiff’s luck appears to have dried up recently and every mistake is being punished. Luton’s winning goal was a cruel example of this, with a shot blocked, but a kind bounce afforded an easy finish.
Tuesday’s results compacted an already close group of relegation contenders and it feels like most now have more confidence and momentum than Cardiff, who draw too many games and ship far too many goals. Those horrendous first six games under Erol Bulut have remained a stain that Omer Riza has been unable to scrub out and despite two good runs of results, they can’t quite escape the tractor beam of the bottom three.
Riza has maintained a fairly even split of advocates and detractors, but after a particularly bad week, it’s certainly now clearly tipped against him for the first time. The question now is what happens next.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Cardiff have a decision to make because even doing nothing is a decision. It’s choosing to place the club’s Championship status in the hands of Riza, over any of the other available options. That will in turn be viewed as either an admirable show of faith or a reckless risk, depending on your faith, or lack of.
There are plenty of factors to consider. First and foremost, Riza has and continues to endure a tough time since the passing of his father. His Instagram feed is that of a broken man in turmoil. Maybe this job is his salvation, but it could just as easily be making matters even worse for him. More than anything else, I just hope he’s OK.
In a footballing sense, Riza is also starting to present as someone that does not know how to resolve the increasingly dire situation Cardiff find themselves in. He’s clearly incredibly frustrated at having to say the same things over and over, but by repeatedly saying them and not finding any solutions, he is effectively damning himself.
Embed from Getty ImagesRiza cuts a lonely figure on the touchline, tortured by Cardiff’s failings and not particularly enjoying their successes. With a contract that expires at the end of the season, he’s also fighting for an uncertain immediate future. This might explain why he often utilises a defensive approach to protect what he has, or maybe that is instead just his managerial nature.
The best-case scenario for Riza is that he inspires a run of form that drags Cardiff clear of relegation, which in turn activates some sort of extension, but more likely is that we’ll just endure another summer like last year, where an uncertain situation instead drags on for several weeks and undermines both parties.
Cardiff are the only club in and around danger that have not changed managers in recent months, but as Stoke and Luton can attest, its no guarantee of any notable improvement. After all, Riza has been shortlisted for Championship Manager of the Month on two occasions since taking charge.
Were Cardiff to pull the trigger, what then?
Embed from Getty ImagesWho would fancy a task that has a pretty high chance of adding a relegation to your CV? Probably none of the managers you would want to hire. Cardiff always need a saviour, so the likes of Neil Warnock and Sam Allardyce appeal to some, despite both now being in their seventies. Staying in the Championship is the absolute priority, but there would also be a longer-term cost of staying up under a manager like that and compromising your ideals in the process.
Presumably Cardiff are still paying for Bulut, but if they were prepared to throw money at the situation and could entice them, both Slaven Bilic and Slavisa Jokanovic are available. Tough, battle-hardened managers with Championship experience. Gary O’Neil is a very bright prospect and Des Buckingham is highly regarded. Neil Harris would have been ideal for this sort of situation, but has just returned to Cambridge. Some will forever have a Nathan Jones itch that needs to be scratched, and despite riding high in League One with Charlton, he would probably be mad enough to take it, if Cardiff were prepared to foot the bill for his hefty compensation.
Ultimately though, anyone else may be enough. Probably not Darren Purse or Richard Shaw because the optics of that would be catastrophic and probably finish Cardiff off, but any new broom would probably benefit from at least a dead cat bounce. A handful of good results could be enough to set them apart from the other strugglers and that’s why something new now has far more appeal than more of the same.