This is the time of year when optimism is through the roof and bold claims are made. Every new signing at every club is greeted with supporters insisting that the play-offs are now nailed on, and why not? The nature of the Championship is that three quarters of the teams contained within have a decent shout of making the top six and that’s why it’s so much fun. If you can’t get carried away now, what’s the point of it all?
Give it a few weeks though and about a quarter of those will get back in their box and delete some hasty tweets. A couple of months later, a picture will start to emerge. The goal is to stay in that group and cling on until the new year, then anything can happen.
Cardiff have had a good window, but don’t they always? Despite the upheaval and financial difficulties they have sometimes faced, they always maximise their means and approach transfer activity boldly. There is often an inevitable degree of revisionism, but 50% of all transfers at all levels don’t work out and Cardiff more than hold their own in that regard.
Having leapt nine places last season, clear, tangible progress was made and the expectation is that further ground will be made this year. If only it was that simple.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe foundations have been laid for a solid campaign, but an early triple injury blow provided a short, sharp slap across the chops and a timely reminder of how quickly momentum can be curbed. Losing Isaak Davies, Kion Etete and Jamilu Collins for several months was a big blow, but the squad is deep enough to absorb it. Injuries elsewhere would be far more traumatic.
So much rests on the shoulders of Aaron Ramsey, who is currently fit and firing. The way he started last season exceeded all expectations, but the better he played, the more he played. Sixty minutes became seventy and when he first picked up an injury against Swansea, it was in added time. Soon he was out, and pretty much stayed that way. Managing him successfully will have a significant baring on Cardiff’s fortunes.
Similarly, Callum O’Dowda is hugely important, due to his pace, intensity and versatility. He was another huge miss last year and his fitness will also need to be micro-managed. Manolis Siopis may look like a grizzled veteran, but plays with the enthusiasm and abandon of an academy graduate. He started the season like a bat out of hell, but despite his best efforts, he struggled to maintain those high standards as the churn of a Championship season started to take hold. He needs help out there and more rotation will be required this term.
Fortunately, there is now greater strength in depth and the new signings have added that bit of quality that was sometimes lacking.
Embed from Getty ImagesAlex Robertson feels like a really exciting arrival, the calibre of youngster that Cardiff have only managed to bring in on loan in recent years. Unlike David Turnbull, another £1m midfield signing, it feels like Robertson is a round peg for a round hole, whereas there is seemingly no hole at all for Turnbull. You have to feel for a player that joined with no clearly defined role or spot in the side and his prospects now look even slimmer. It feels more likely that he will depart on loan than break into the side and that is the club’s failing, not his.
I think Chris Willock is an exceptional signing as a freebie and he will bring some much-needed x-factor. Anwar El-Ghazi is another bold addition, but having not played for almost a year, he will need time and patience. The difficulty is that the signings have immediately elevated expectations, but not all of them have their sea legs yet and Cardiff have a tough run of games to begin with. Hopefully the enthusiasm can withstand a difficult start if results prove disappointing.
The other factor at play is Bulut himself.
The fact that Cardiff are commencing consecutive seasons with the same man in charge is a minor miracle and that continuity is a source of strength. Despite this, Bulut’s stock rose and fell by the week last year and in order for Cardiff to progress, that needs to level off a bit this time round. He remains a largely popular figure, but an enduring claim has been that he needs to release the hand break. While this may prove easier with better players, it remains easier said than done and can prove detrimental as opposed to positive.
Embed from Getty ImagesEverything to this point suggests that Bulut is a conservative manager, so expecting balls to the wall football would be foolish. Subtle changes could make a big difference though. Liberating Rubin Colwill would be a popular alteration and playing Callum Robinson through the middle is already bearing fruit, but has made me cross that he was so unwilling to entertain the idea last season.
With an impressive squad, a nice blend of young players coming through and Championship experience, some shiny new signings and a fit Ramsey, its easy to get carried away and set expectations sky high, but the Championship is bastard-hard and tends to find a way to cut you down to size. You imagine that the days of looking over their shoulder are long gone, but I bet Huddersfield and Birmingham City probably thought the same this time last year.
You need luck and to make your own luck. If the stars then align, anything is possible, but progress is not guaranteed and the threat of regression is never far away. For now, everything feels positive and progressive. The hope is that Bulut’s approach will follow suit and everything else will fall into place.