Cardiff are nearly home and dry. Even by the Championship’s wild and crazy standards, a six-point cushion with two to play should be enough to maintain Cardiff’s second tier status. They may even be safe by the time they next take the field on Sunday, should Saturday’s results go their way.
It’s a huge weight off, and not before time. This time last year, Cardiff were safe with several weeks to spare, but they could yet match, or even top last season’s points tally. Currently on 49, last year’s 53 is in their sights, so despite all the fear and panic, this season has been statistically broadly similar. The only difference is that the division as a whole has been more competitive this year, whereas last season, the bottom three teams were cut adrift far earlier.
Cardiff are back in their safe space of 18th, which more or less mirrors their budget. This is evidently what Cardiff are now, no more and no less. The problem is that it offers them very little wriggle room, so if standards drop even slightly, relegation is very likely. They’ve sailed very close to it in successive seasons now and its time to plot a different path.
To some extent, you are what you eat. The more you spend, the better you do, but the likes of Luton, firmly entrenched in the top six, show that a well-executed plan can go a long way. If you look at the Premier League, Brighton and Brentford, former Cardiff peers, are also upsetting the odds. Sat side by side in 8th and 9th respectively, they have the lowest budgets in the division, but follow the same sophisticated models.
Much is made of the gulf between the Premier League and the Championship, but there has never been a better time to be a smart, hungry contender. You only have to look at the bloated mess at Chelsea as evidence that too much money without a plan can do far more harm than good.
There are A LOT of poorly run clubs in the top two leagues. The problem is that Cardiff are one of them. It’s now surely time for that to change.
When you consider that Cardiff have changed managers three times this year, scored the second least number of goals, scored from one corner in over 200 attempts and missed the most number of penalties in all four divisions, they can consider themselves VERY lucky to avoid the drop.
Since Sabri Lamouchi has taken charge, Cardiff are 16th in the form table, so only a squeak higher than their actual position, but during his brief tenure, they have also crept in to the top 10 at times. It hasn’t always felt like it, but Cardiff have made strides.
Presumably there is no appetite for another managerial change, so the sooner Cardiff now hire Lamouchi permanently, the better. Hopefully on a two-year deal to because while the short-term deals of recent years may make business sense, they create a sense of uncertainty that the club could certainly do without.
It’s very difficult to know what the future under Lamouchi would look like because he has until now refused to even entertain the idea. The focus has been firmly on the now, on and off the pitch, understandably and admirably so, but does he even want to stay? We do not yet know. This time last year, Steve Morison had his sights firmly set on the following season, with a plan he managed to execute. Who knows where the club are in that regard this time round.
There is a lot that requires prompt attention. Firstly, the fates of Mark Harris, Joel Bagan, Tom Sang, Gavin Whyte, Dillon Phillips and Kieron Evans. There may be a willingness to let all of the above leave, but Lamouchi recently spoke of his admiration for Bagan and his recommendation that the club offer him a new deal, which has not yet happened.
Beyond that, there are a further 17 senior players set to go out of contract in 2024, leaving only eight players with a deal past next season. To some extent, this short-term approach has become the norm in the EFL, but when the likes of Perry Ng, Rubin Colwill, Ryan Wintle and Mark McGuinness are included in that list, they have to safeguard the squad and reward their star performers.
In terms of transfers, another summer as successful as the last would go a long way. It’s been a long season and opinions on signings have peaked and troughed in line with form, but under the restrictions Cardiff had, and still do, they did very well. The squad is far leaner and meaner than it was this time last year and that in itself is a clear sign of progress. Cardiff have also been adept at identifying very impressive loan signings. Ideally they would be to enhance the whole, rather than prop it up though.
The academy is producing talent, even if they are, like everyone else, struggling to keep hold of it and the new Llanrumney campus is nearing completion. There are reasons for optimism, as well as relief, but in order for that to materialise into something tangible, Cardiff need to formalise and execute a plan.
They fell on their feet with Lamouchi because he brought fan favourite Sol Bamba with him and was willing to accept a short-term deal, when many managers of his calibre probably wouldn’t have. He now needs to be backed, as much as possible, otherwise Cardiff will soon find themselves back to square one.
The only reason they ended up with Lamouchi is because he applied for the vacant post. Cardiff did not pursue him and were not in a proactive position when it was time to replace Mark Hudson. Its now time for the club to take the reigns and chart their own destination. If they finally do that, stressful, fragmented, painful seasons like this one has often been could be a thing of the past.