The Erol Bulut Hokey Cokey

You put your left arm in, left arm out. With sights already firmly fixed on next season, we’re all doing the Erol Bulut Hokey Cokey at the moment. Season tickets have just gone on sale and as per usual, we have no idea who will oversee the campaign we’re being asked to invest in.

Bulut’s contract soon ends, but the suggestion is that there is a clause to extend his deal, should the club wish to activate it. Some say one year and others say two. Maybe the duration is the source of the apparent reluctance and if the club are undecided, join the club.

I usually have very definite opinions when it comes to managers. The M words the club are no longer allowed to use, formerly know as Malky Mackay was universally popular, while Russell Slade was a necessary evil, who did far better than most gave him credit for. The good outweighed the bad with Neil Warnock and vice versa with Steve Morison. I’m increasingly finding that what Erol Bulut stands for and what he actually delivers are often two different things.

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Bulut’s arrival reignited the enthusiasm of the board and that should not be understated. The club were drifting before his arrival, in the wrong direction. At a time when the club were hiring caretakers, Bulut was the first custodian treated as a manager in a while. He was afforded his own staff and made signings of significance. He’s operating in the market with one hand behind his back, but that is the lot of most Cardiff managers.

He made a great start and the opening couple of months exceeded all expectations. The next three or four months, not so much, but there were mitigating factors too. They perked up as spring approached, but just like the rain, a bad result or poor performance has never been far away.

There was a period where Cardiff were entrenched in 14^th and plenty were more than happy to ignore the warning signs and accentuate the progress. Cardiff have since crept up to 11^th and pitched their tent. It certainly looks like progress, but why doesn’t it feel like it?

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Your team does not exist in a vacuum. Clubs will always be compared and contrasted. We can’t help but peak over other people’s fences to see what they’re up to and I often wonder what opponents think when they peer into Cardiff’s garden. If you use the Good Friday game against Sunderland as an example, I can tell what they stand for after one game. Robust in defence, they have very technically gifted young players that are trusted and allowed to express themselves. Given time and space, they will hurt you.

What Cardiff stand for is anyone’s guess.

I wonder what Sunderland’s fans were thinking when they watched a very talented side on paper play completely passively out of possession and frantically when they had the ball. A team without any real press that endlessly turns over the ball. That scores a disproportionate number of goals from set-pieces, but are amongst the very worst in the division at fashioning chances from open play.

Cardiff do not look well coached. Sometimes they figure it out and find a way, but they rarely open teams up with their patterns of play or force mistakes through their intensity. They’re one-paced and often far too easy to play against. These are not issues of Bulut’s making, they have been passed down through several managers, but he has not yet addressed them either.

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There are certain elements that have no quick fix. Speed is a glaring weakness, in thought and movement. That can only be addressed in the transfer market, where Cardiff have a complete aversion to quick players. Going into battle without a plan is unforgiveable though and Cardiff often look ill-equipped for the challenge in front of them. The Swansea game always acts as a mirror and no one liked the look of the reflection. Cardiff seemed terrified, but the fact that it appeared to come as a surprise is what has really bothered supporters.

In terms of progress, for some, the league table is all that matters. A tangible representation of Cardiff’s improvement. That is indisputable and its great to not be looking over our shoulders, but what about the feels? How things feel are just as important. Bulut’s lack of accountability is starting to grate. The double substitutions after a terrible first half feel more like a relinquishing of responsibility than a solution to a problem.

There are certain things Bulut is not happy with, and don’t we all know it. He often uses press conferences to get his digs in first and some will applaud that, but we all know that won’t play well with the owner. Bulut is Mehmet Dalman’s choice and he always favours a manager with experience, but Vincent Tan prefers youthful promise, so you can image the conversations that are likely taking place at present.

We’re all desperate for Bulut to succeed and the last thing the club needs is another reset, but just because you back a horse, it doesn’t make it the right horse.

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For me, progress would be a manger completing a season and not starting the next one under pressure. Cardiff have seven games left and very little to play for. Unless they up their levels, the season could fizzle out, they lose the majority of those games and tumble down the table. Even if Bulut then remains in charge, if he makes a slow start next season, there will be calls for him to go before our kids have returned to school. That is the worst possible outcome, but a real possibility.

Cardiff are now presented with three choices. Reward Bulut now and allow him to make plans for the future, sever ties and begin their search for a manager they feel can do a better job, or the worst-case scenario, which is drag a decision out until the summer, eroding remaining goodwill while undermining their plans and preparation for next year.

Four wins, in, two defeats, out. Social media has made everyone more trigger happy, but Bulut has made everyone indecisive. For every great result, there is a truly harrowing performance to undermine it. In, out, in, out, shake it all about. It all feels like the flip of a coin at the moment. Heads or tails?