The Butterfly Effect.
The scientific theory that a single occurence, no matter how small, can change the course of the universe forever.
Can the butterfly effect apply to football? We’ll never know, but there are moments that you feel could change a player or club’s trajectory forever.
For Cardiff? That moment could very well be losing Jay Bothroyd to injury in the play-off final vs Blackpool.
It’s the 24th of April, 2010. Cardiff City have secure a play off place by beating Sheffield Wednesday three goals to two on the final day of the Championship season, with star striker Jay Bothroyd netting two.
A tough double header against Leicester City awaits in the semi finals of the lottery they call the play offs. Cardiff start strong, winning the first leg 1-0. The second leg Cardiff is a real slog and Cardiff know that they have to battle to hold onto their lead, but sadly Leicester take the game to penalties with a 3-2 win (3-3 on aggregate).
Goalkeeper David Marshall is the penalty shootout hero, saving two of the Foxes spot kicks. Cardiff win 4-3 in the shoot out. The reward? A trip to Wembley.
Just one team, one game, stand between Cardiff and a first season in the Premier League; Blackpool.
Cardiff were favourites, having finished two places above Ian Holloway’s plucky Blackpool in the regular season.
The Bluebirds started well, with Michael Chopra handing Cardiff the lead after just eight minutes. Scottish midfielder Charlie Adam pulled the tangerines level just four minutes later with a superb free-kick.
After just 15 minutes, though, Cardiff’s star striker Jay Bothroyd is forced to leave the field due to injury. It feels like a huge turning point for Cardiff.
The Bluebirds take the lead once more through local hero Joe Ledley, but Blackpool once again pull level just three minutes later; Gary Taylor-Fletcher grabbing their second goal.
The deciding moment came on the stroke of half time, with Brett Ormerod firing to put Blackpool in front for the first time in the match.
The match ended 3-2 and it was Blackpool who had secured a place in the Premier League for 2010/11.
It was a heartbreaking loss for Cardiff and it’s possible to look at the 15 minute mark as the truly game defining moment.
Jay Bothroyd entered the play-offs off the back of a truly remarkable season in Cardiff, netting 13 goals in 42 appearances. He was key to the side and grabbed goals in important games, such as the 4-0 victory over Watford and 1-0 win over Middlesbrough
That Cardiff side was truly one of the best supporters have seen in recent times, with the likes of Joe Ledley, Stephen McPhail and Michael Chopra joining Bothroyd in a star studded team.
Many supporters felt that with just a little investment, that side could’ve survived in the Premier League the following season. But it wasn’t to be.
Losing Bothroyd after just 15 minutes was a devastating blow for Dave Jones’ side. Bothroyd – a future England international – was the leader of the side and the man who could make anything happen.
His injury was clearly a major blow for the side and the Bluebirds didn’t ever look their best in that game without him.
The next year Jay hoped to get revenge for the horror end to the previous season and he did just that netting 18 goals in the league and 20 in all competition. This led Cardiff to a second 4th place finish in a row behind big rivals Swansea City.
Sadly, it was another play-off loss for the Bluebirds, this time in the semi-final leg to Reading. They would have to wait until the 2012-13 season for a taste of promotion.
Jay Bothroyd enjoyed a brilliant time at Cardiff playing from 2008-2011 making 116 appearances, scoring 41 times.
He helped Cardiff to multiple play off places and led the line in what was considered one of Cardiff’s greatest all time sides before a move to QPR in the summer of 2011.
Jay will be fondly remembered by Cardiff fans for years to come, as the striker continues to play out in the J1 league in Japan. There’s clearly plenty left in the tank – Bothroyd has scored 53 goals in 92 appearances for Jubilo Iwata and Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo since 2015.
Cardiff never got to see Bothroyd play in the Premier League in a Cardiff shirt, and who knows what would’ve happened had he not suffered injury in the play-off final. Either way, Bothroyd will be a Bluebird legend for years to come.
But there is one question ‘what would have happened if Jay had stayed on?’ Well there are many possibilities but let’s first explore the obvious one.
But there is one question ‘what would have happened if Jay had stayed on?’ Well there are many possibilities, which we explore below.
Little Impact
Football while a game of high skill and passion has a high factor of luck it’s very possible that this would not have been Jay’s day and it could have seen Cardiff fall at the final hurdle anyway even with his inclusion.
The Premier League
This is one that consistently enters the minds of Cardiff fans; reaching the promise land! Jay had been on fine form that season – his goals and great team play is what had helped Cardiff to get to the position they were in. His prolific goal scoring abilities really could have elevated Cardiff in the final and given them the edge needed to beat Blackpool.
Jay had the ability to win a game and there was every chance of that if he hadn’t suffered injury. Jay’s presence would’ve lifted his team mates too, who would’ve no doubt been dejected at seeing him pick up that injury.
Survival
Many thought that this Cardiff side was one of the strongest in the clubs recent history. Many also felt that this team could remain as a Premier league side. With two promotions since the Blackpool game, Cardiff have been viewed as one of the favourites to go down both times.
It’s hard to predict how a side will fare in the Premier League – just look at Fulham – but many would’ve put money on Jay’s Cardiff side staying in the Premier League. They had the firepower, the creativity and the solidness at the back. A brilliant side.
A top flight side
What if Cardiff had gained promotion and survived relegation the following season? The premier league is one of the most competitive leagues in the world and also one of the richest, so seeing Cardiff stay up in their first year could have been huge for the club.
I personally believe in the first year syndrome – meaning survival in the first season is key, with the stream of income giving sides the ability to establish themselves as a mid-table top flight side. Recent examples of this theory are Bournemouth, Watford and Leicester, who in their second season did the impossible and won the league.
If Cardiff had managed to survive their first season in the top flight, we would see a completely different side to what we do now with investment behind them.
No rebrand?
Cardiff’s controversial rebrand to red came two years after their playoff heartbreak and, who knows, perhaps Vincent Tan would’ve restrained from rebranding the club to red.
Tan’s aims were to make Cardiff more commercially viable to an Asian audience, but being a Premier League side would’ve served that purpose regardless.
Promotion that year may have seen Cardiff stay in blue and avoid years of conflict between the club and it’s fans.
These are all, of course, a hypothesis, but the Butterfly effect is one that can not be taken lightly. We will, of course, never know where Cardiff City would be right now if Jay hadn’t unfortunately picked up that injury during the play-off final in 2010, but it’s always one that generates conversation among Cardiff fans.
By Ben Johnsey.